“We have no control over outcomes, but we can control the process. Of course, outcomes matter, but by focusing our attention on process, we maximize our chances of good outcomes.”
—Michael J. Mauboussin
“The practical difference between . . . risk and uncertainty . . . is that in the former the distribution of the outcome in a group of instances is known . . . while in the case of uncertainty, this is not true . . . because the situation dealt with is in high degree unique.”
—Frank H. Knight
“The fundamental law of investing is the uncertainty of the future.”
—Peter Bernstein
Michael J. Mauboussin is a Managing Director and Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse. Prior to rejoining CS in 2013, he was Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management. He is also the author of three books, including More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places, named in the The 100 Best Business Books of All Time by 800-CEO-Read. Michael has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School since 1993, and received the Dean’s Award for Teaching Excellence in 2009. He is also chairman of the board of trustees of the Santa Fe Institute, a leading center for multi-disciplinary research in complex systems theory. More »
Papers
The Incredible Shrinking Universe of Stocks: The Causes and Consequences of Fewer U.S. Equities (March 22, 2017)
To Buy or Not To Buy: A Checklist for Assessing Mergers & Acquisitions (February 27, 2017)
Looking for Easy Games – How Passive Investing Shapes Active Management (January 4, 2017)
Capital Allocation Outside the U.S. – Evidence, Analytical Models, and Assessment Guidance (November 15, 2016)
Measuring the Moat: Assessing the Magnitude and Sustainability of Value Creation (Updated Version) (November 1, 2016)
Capital Allocation: Evidence, Analytical Models, and Assessment Guidance (October 19, 2016)
The Base Rate Book (September 26, 2016)
Thirty Years: Reflections on the Ten Attributes of Great Investors (August 4, 2016)
Operating Leverage: A Framework for Anticipating Changes in Earnings (June 14, 2016)
What’s Going On in Your Brain? Common Investor Biases and Where They Come From (October 20, 2015)
Sharpening Your Forecasting Skills – Foresight Is a Measurable Skill That You Can Cultivates (September 28, 2015)
Total Addressable Market – Methods to Estimate a Company’s Potential Sales (September 1, 2015)
Understanding Skill A Paradox Plus Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches (July 22, 2015)
Triple Crown Teachings Three Takeaways from the Quest for the Elusive Feat (June 4, 2015)
Capital Allocation – Updated Evidence, Analytical Methods, and Assessment Guidance (June 2, 2015)
IQ versus RQ, Differentiating Smarts from Decision-Making Skills (May 12, 2015)
The Base Rate Book – Sales Growth Integrating the Past to Better Anticipate the Future (May 4, 2015)
Min(d)ing the Opportunity Excess Returns Require the Chance to Apply Skill (March 17, 2015)
Animating Mr. Market, Adopting a Proper Psychological Attitude (February 10, 2015)
Managing the Man Overboard Moment Making an Informed Decision After a Large Price Drop (January 15, 2015)
Capital Allocation Outside the U.S. Evidence, Analytical Methods, and Assessment Guidance (January 6, 2015)
A Long Look at Short-Termism Questioning the Premise (November 18, 2014)
Lessons from Freestyle Chess Merging Fundamental and Quantitative Analysis (September 10, 2014)
Capital Allocation: Evidence, Analytical Methods, and Assessment Guidance (August 5, 2014)
Calculating Return on Invested Capital How to Determine ROIC and Address Common Issues (June 4, 2014)
Disbursing Cash to Shareholders Frequently Asked Questions about Buybacks and Dividends (May 6, 2014)
Why Corporate Longevity Matters What Index Turnover Tells Us about Corporate Results (April 16, 2014)
Methods to Improve Decisions Five Common Mistakes and How to Address Them (February 24, 2014)
What Does a Price-Earnings Multiple Mean? An Analytical Bridge between P/Es and Solid Economics (January 29, 2014)
Building an Effective Team How to Manage a Team to Make Good Decisions (January 8, 2014)
Economic Returns, Reversion to the Mean, and Total Shareholder Returns Anticipating Change Is Hard but Profitable (December 6, 2013)
Outcome Bias and the Interpreter How Our Minds Confuse Skill and Luck (October 15, 2013)
Estimating the Cost of Capital A Practical Guide to Assessing Opportunity Cost (October 8, 2013)
How to Model Reversion to the Mean Determining How Fast, and to What Mean, Results Revert (September 17, 2013)
Measuring the Moat Assessing the Magnitude and Sustainability of Value Creation (July 22, 2013)
Alpha and the Paradox of Skill: Results Reflect Your Skill and the Game You Are Playing (July 15, 2013)
The Importance of Expectations The Question that Bears Repeating: What’s Priced in? (August 21, 2012)
Share Repurchase from All Angles Assessing Buybacks, No Matter Where You Sit (June 11, 2012)
Cultivating Your Judgment Skills A Framework for Improving the Quality of Decisions (May 7, 2013)
Seeking Portfolio Manager Skill Active Share and Tracking Error as a Means to Anticipate Alpha (February 24, 2012)
The Coffee Can Approach Why Doing Less Can Leave You with More (March 25, 2011)
Untangling Skill and Luck: How to Think About Outcomes—Past, Present, and Future (July 15, 2010)
Surge in the Urge to Merge (January 12, 2010)
Long-Term Investing: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Ignore Volatility (December 15, 2008)
ROIC Patterns and Shareholder Returns: Sorting Fundamentals and Expectations (January 18, 2008)
Death, Taxes, and Reversion to the Mean: ROIC Patterns: Luck, Persistence, and What to Do About It (December 14, 2007)
The Ecosystem Edge (July 27, 2007)
Turtles in Omaha The Mindset of Great Investors (May 23, 2007)
Explaining the Wisdom of Crowds: Applying the Logic of Diversity (March 20, 2007)
The Importance of Diverse Thinking Why the Santa Fe Institute Can Make You a Better Investor (January 16, 2007)
Long-Term Investing in a Short-Term World How Psychology and Incentives Shape the Investment Industry (May 18, 2006)
Common Errors in DCF Models Do You Use Economically Sound and Transparent Models? (March 16, 2006)
Size Matters The Kelly Criterion and the Importance of Money Management (February 1, 2006)
Clear Thinking about Share Repurchase: Capital Allocation, Dividends, and Share Repurchase, Why Buybacks are so Important Now (January 10, 2006)
Are You an Expert? Experts and Markets (October 28, 2005)
Aver and Aversion: What Two Recent Experiments Mean for Investors (August 9, 2005)
The Ecosystem Edge (July 27, 2005)
Capital Ideas Revisited—Part 2: Thoughts on Beating a Mostly-Efficient Stock Market (May 20, 2005)
Capital Ideas Revisited The Prime Directive, Sharks, and The Wisdom of Crowds (March 30, 2005)
Contrarian Investing: The Psychology of Going Against the Crowd (March 8, 2005)
M&M on Valuation (January 14, 2005)
The Economics of Customer Businesses (December 9, 2004)
Exploring Network Economics (October 11, 2004)
Employee Stock Options: Theory and Practice (September 7, 2004)
The Life of Game Sports, Stats, and the Lessons they Teach Us (August 5, 2004)
Decision-Making for Investors Theory, Practice, and Pitfalls (May 24, 2004)
Integrating the Outliers: Two Lessons from the St. Petersburg Paradox (January 28, 2003)
Measuring the Moat: Assessing the Magnitude and Sustainability of Value Creation (December 16, 2002)
A Tail of Two Worlds Fat Tails and Investing (April 29, 2002)
The Babe Ruth Effect: Frequency versus Magnitude (January 29, 2002)
Ruminations on Risk Beta Versus Margin of Safety (August 3, 2001)
Thoughts On Valuation II: An Epistemological View (May 31, 2001)
Get Real: Using Real Options in Security Analysis (June 23, 1999)
The Invisible Lead Steer New Answers to Old Questions About the Stock Market (December 10, 1998)
Shift Happens On a New Paradigm of the Markets as a Complex Adaptive System (October 24, 1997)
Thoughts on Valuation (October 21, 1997)
What Have You Learned in the Past 2 Seconds? (March 12, 1997)
Competitive Advantage Period “CAP” The Neglected Value Driver (January 14, 1997)
Articles
The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing (CFA Institute, September 2013)
The True Measures of Success (HBR, October 2012)
The Paradox of Skill Why Greater Skill Leads to More Luck (2012)
The True Measures Of Success Most companies use the wrong performance metrics. Don’t be one of them. (HBR, October 2012)
Smart People, Dumb Decisions (March-April, 2010)
Getting Out of Embed The Role of Social Context in Decision Making (2004)
Revisiting Market Efficiency: The Stock Market As a Complex Adaptive System (Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 2002)
Common Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make (September 29, 2009)
The Trouble with Earnings and Price/Earnings Multiples
Your Mind and Your Money-Herd Mentality (February 15, 2010)
Think Twice: an interview with Michael J. Mauboussin (2009)
Books
The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing
Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places
Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns
Hurricane Capital 
This is truly God’s work to have collected such important papers in one place.
Thanks a Ton!
You’re welcome. Glad to hear that you like it. Keep reading, keep learning.