“Below the headline of expert ineffectiveness were some more subtle findings. One was an inverse correlation between fame and accuracy. While famous experts had among the worst records of prediction, they demonstrated ‘skill at telling a compelling story.’ To gain fame it helps to tell ‘tight, simple, clear stories that grab and hold audiences.’ These pundits are often wrong but never in doubt.” —Mauboussin & Callahan, Sharpening Your Forecasting Skills: Foresight Is a Measurable Skill That You Can Cultivates
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